When the Rivers Run Low, Who Is Really Prepared?

Downstream Images

We have all read the headlines. The images from this summer’s drought are still fresh: the record heat, the shrinking rivers, the barges stranded on the Rhine and the freight costs that climbed with every fall in the gauge. That story was followed closely, day by day, and it has been told thoroughly and well. What drew far less attention, and is clearer now with a little distance, is what happened behind it. Inside the manufacturing plants themselves, the loss of reliable water quietly forced companies to cut output, reroute supply and, in some cases, stop production altogether. The same water scarcity affected the communities around these key manufacturing facilities, putting at jeopardy the quality of daily life, local employment, public services and the socio-economic health of places that depend on both reliable water and resilient industry. This is the part that matters the most for everyone, and by now, hopefully, we all understand that the past summer high temperatures are not an exception to endure and forget. These are lasting changes in the conditions we operate under and are a call for planning and collaborative action. Building water resilience in Europe will require collaboration across industry, policymakers, suppliers and communities, with concrete solutions that help reduce demand, increase reuse and protect both business continuity and shared vital resources. Are we doing enough to keep European industry competitiveness in a future where water can no longer be taken for granted?

 I lead Ecolab's Downstream Europe business, working and collaborating with long-term customers in the chemical, petrochemical and refinery industry. Many of them sit on the banks of the Rhine, the Danube and the Seine, and felt the summer's extreme conditions first and most acutely. In the last few months, my conversations with these customers have shifted from being centered around the business priorities to more strategic conversations on how to help them build up long term business resilience and continuity, to enhance their competitiveness. 

 

The story behind the headlines

The Rhine is far more than a picturesque waterway. It is Germany's most important inland freight artery connecting Rotterdam and Antwerp to some of the largest chemical clusters in Europe, so when the water falls under a certain critical level the consequences travel quickly. 

By early August, the gauge at Kaub had fallen to around 20 centimeters, below the record set during the 2018 drought, and within days it touched roughly seven. Kaub lies on the Middle Rhine in western Germany, between Mainz and Koblenz, and its reading is the one the whole industry watches. The Kiel Institute has calculated that when Kaub remains below 78 centimeters for around a month, German industrial output declines by close to one percent. Tanker freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe more than tripled within six weeks. Apart from the freight figures, what gave the greatest cause for concern was the timing: in 2018 the low point did not arrive until late October, yet this summer it came in August.

In France, two-thirds of the aquifers that supply most of the country's drinking water fell below normal, and 70% of France was under water-use restrictions. In the Netherlands, the Rhine's inflow at Lobith dropped to about a third of the usual July level, below even the 1976 record. This is not solely a question of shipping lanes. The health and wealth of countries and societies and the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in Europe, strongly depends on the health of its aquifers and wells, and those sources are under pressure now more than ever.

 

A river performs two roles for us at the same time. It is the artery that carries our goods, and it is the water that cools and sustains our plants. A drought threatens both.



The impact of water scarcity on the Chemical and Manufacturing Industry in Europe

What the headlines have only marginally highlighted is that water scarcity is also a threat to Europe's energy supply and economic resilience. It is no longer a north-versus-south climate discussion, but a continent-wide industrial economic competitiveness priority. 

We experienced the consequences of having several key chemical producers declaring force majeure because critical raw materials could only reach the plant by ship, and the low water no longer permitted it.

Equally a leading steelmaker in the Ruhrgebiet reduced blast-furnace output and suspended its own barge operations. Further east, low cooling-water levels on the Danube forced Romania's Cernăvodă nuclear plant offline, which supplies around a fifth of the country's power, while Hungary's Paks plant, which provides close to half of national electricity, had to reduce output and raised the prospect of a full shutdown.

Water does not observe borders. The Rhine passes through four countries before it reaches the sea; the Danube touches ten. A plant's reliability in one country can depend on how much water is drawn off in another, which is why the response needs to be coordinated at a European level.


A one-off, or a permanent shift?

It is tempting to file 2026 under "exceptional" and move on. Science tells us otherwise. Researchers have concluded that climate change has made hot, dry European summer considerably more likely, and warned that the conditions driving it could roughly double in frequency should global warming continue. Germany estimates it has lost some 60 billion cubic meters of water over the past 25 years, and its own government has put the potential cost of water scarcity at close to 625 billion euros by 2050.

 

We can no longer plan as though low-water years are rare shocks. They are becoming a permanent feature of the conditions in which we operate.



If this is the trajectory, then taking water for granted ceases to be an environmental issue and becomes a key economic risk to the future of industry and the wealth of societies in Europe. A permanent shift cannot be managed any longer as a seasonal inconvenience; it must strategically be planned for, invested against and corrected for in advance. If we can already see where this is heading, why do so many of us continue to plan around the exception rather than the rule? Do we understand fully what is at stake?

 

Europe is moving. Is industry moving with it?

In June 2025, the European Commission implemented the Water Resilience Strategy, built around a “water efficiency first” principle and a target of improving the EU’s water efficiency by at least 10 percent by 2030. It signals firmer guidance of the existing Water Framework Directive, which governs how much water may be abstracted, and it frames water as a matter of competitiveness and security rather than of ecology alone.

National governments are tightening their frameworks in parallel. Germany has launched a nationwide low-water monitoring system; France's Plan Eau seeks to cut withdrawals by 10 percent by 2030, with compulsory metering and "water sobriety" plans for industrial sites, and at the height of the summer almost 70 percent of the country was under some form of restriction. Spain has renewed its drought plans, and the Netherlands escalated its shortage measures. The thread running through all of it is consistent: measure more, abstract less, and plan for scarcity.

 

Regulations are beginning to reflect a reality that industry recognizes water is becoming a question of competitiveness, not only compliance. The test now is how quickly companies can turn water resilience into business growth, continuity and long-term competitiveness.



The real question for the boardroom

The chemical and manufacturing industry have learned to effectively manage energy and safety as key pillars of operational excellence and competitive advantage. These 2 pillars are measured, prioritized, owned and resources from the boardroom to the manufacturing plants level with laser focused discipline. Water is also a key strategic pillar for companies to focus on. 

As my colleague Geoff Townsend often reminds us all: "the true cost of water is not simply what appears on the utility bill. It is tied to energy demand, cooling performance, treatment requirements, production reliability, downtime risk and, ultimately, the total cost of running an industrial plant". Seen this way, reducing, reusing and recycling water is not only an environmental measure. It is a practical route to efficiency, cost control and resilience, and should be pursued with the same urgency as other high-priority operational improvements. This also means that we must treat the water-energy nexus as a core operating reality, not as two separate priorities to be addressed in sequence. 

As water availability, regulation and community expectations evolve, Water resilience strategy is the must have conversation at the executive board level for companies that want to protect business continuity, control costs and strengthen resilience. Regulation in Europe are putting greater focus on responsible water use and long-term resilience, and a public that expects industry to manage shared water resources responsibly alongside communities.

Environmental responsibility and business resilience increasingly become the same conversation. Reducing freshwater dependency, understanding how much water each site uses and where it comes from, and building greater resilience in cooling, heating and production processes are no longer only questions of compliance. They are practical steps that can help protect operational continuity, strengthen competitiveness and support the long-term viability of industry in Europe. From my conversations with our customers, we see an increase in commitment to make a positive impact. The opportunity now is to move from recognition to broader, faster action, scaling the solutions that make water efficiency, reuse and resilience part of how industrial sites operate every day. Safeguarding shared water resources and keeping European industry competitive are increasingly linked, and the sooner water resilience is treated as a core operating priority, the stronger our businesses and communities will be.

With a few weeks' distance, I take the view that 2026 was a warning, and it came early. Whether we regard it as a single difficult summer or as the moment the ground shifted, it is our responsibility to take control and act to enhance Water Resilience in Europe. The rivers have put the question to Europe's industrial and political decision makers alike: will we continue to treat water resilience as a reaction to drought, or make it a core condition for competitiveness, energy security and community wellbeing?

 
 

Interested in the operational side of water resilience? Explore the technical strategies helping industry adapt to increasing water stress.

Explore the Technical Perspective

Om forfatteren

Dr Margherita Fontana

Dr Margherita Fontana

VP & General Manager, Downstream Europe

Interested in the operational side of water resilience? Explore the technical strategies helping industry adapt to increasing water stress.

Explore the Technical Perspective

 

 

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